Setting an example for the rest of the league? Perhaps. The Carlsson deal will likely contribute to RFAs being well-paid sooner. Following Carlsson's $90 million deal, Connor Bedard also signed with the Blackhawks for five years for a total of $75 million. Center Adam Fantilli (Columbus) and defenseman Simon Edvinsson (Detroit) also need new deals and could still receive offer sheets (by December 1st at the latest) if they don't sign soon.
However, it might also just be a short surge in offer sheets: The upper salary limit is rising drastically year by year, and even the most conservative general managers must face reality and generously compensate their young players. This would then lead to a scarcity in the RFA market alongside a thin UFA market, and thus fewer offer sheets – the differences between these two groups are increasingly disappearing.
Are Marco Kasper and Marco Rossi affected by these trends?
Whether Marco Kasper benefits from this upward trend next summer will likely depend on his next season.
For Marco Rossi, whose camp long bickered with Bill Guerin in Minnesota last season, this development came a year too soon. When his three-year deal expires in the summer of 2028, this could become an issue, as he will still be under the age limit of 27.
An offer sheet for him could theoretically cover not only his last RFA year but also six more.
The Conditions for Offer Sheets
For offer sheets to be possible at all, several factors must come together:
The player must be a Group 2 RFA who has previously been under an NHL contract – other players (UFAs, Group 4 RFAs, or unsigned draft picks) are excluded.
The player must have completed a corresponding number of professional seasons (usually three). A season with at least ten NHL games is considered one such season. This is why, for example, Cutter Gauthier, unlike his teammate Leo Carlsson, is not eligible for an offer sheet: he only played one NHL game in the first year of his entry-level deal.
Players who file for arbitration for a follow-up contract can only receive an offer sheet until the verdict (or an agreement beforehand).
From the Interested Team's Perspective
They must possess the corresponding number of draft picks as compensation if the offer is not matched, always depending on the salary offered. In Carlsson's case, these were four (own, not acquired) first-round picks within the next five years.
They must have the corresponding salary cap space, meaning they cannot start financial cleanup after making the offer.
The Loophole
Columbus GM Don Waddell is all too familiar with offer sheets from his previous tenure with Carolina. He served there as President and/or GM from 2014 to 2024.
His player Sebastian Aho received an offer sheet from the Montreal Canadiens in 2019, which Carolina matched. Two years later, the Hurricanes retaliated, submitting an offer sheet for Canadiens forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which was not matched.
Everyone in the industry knew this was a revenge move pushed by eccentric Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon. Waddell denied it, but one small detail could not have been a coincidence: Kotkaniemi's signing bonus was the unusual sum of $20 – "20" was also Aho's jersey number.
Waddell, therefore, knows his way around offer sheets well, but must hope that he doesn't have to apply this knowledge to Fantilli, who is still without a contract, or to Kirill Marchenko next year. However, the 67-year-old Waddell has identified a loophole in the CBA:
A player for whom an offer sheet is matched cannot be traded for one year. So the Ducks cannot say: "The price for Carlsson is too steep for us; we'll trade him for a cheaper player."
Conversely, this is not true – if Carlsson were now a Flyer, they could trade him without any issues. Why would they have done that? They needed a center like him, didn't they?
That's also not the point, but one has to think a step back:
The Flyers would not have had the necessary picks or cap space for Carlsson. Instead of throwing in the towel immediately, they could have involved another team as an intermediary to submit the offer sheet.
If it's matched, nothing happens. If not, the intermediary gets Carlsson, immediately trades him to the Flyers, and of course receives players or draft picks for these efforts.
This is made possible precisely because Carlsson cannot be traded if an offer sheet is matched, but he can be in the inverse case. Strange, but so it is written...
Will this CBA loophole remain theoretical in the coming years, or will it become one of the weapons used by GMs in a rapidly changing salary landscape?
