This look at current football events should largely avoid evaluating and judging FIFA's framework conditions. The tournament mode and its draw, the advertising breaks called hydration breaks, etc., are also not a topic.
Rather, it's about the evolution of the game. About the killers and game changers on the pitch.
The World Cup of Killers and Game Changers
The question of who the guarantors of success are is certainly the most exciting. After this World Cup, the answer can be easily summarized. If the 'structure players' function, you are competitive. If you also have game changers or killers in the team, you are title-worthy.
Who are the game changers or killers, and who are the 'structure players' or system-bearers?
Four Categories
If you evaluate players in 4 categories, you get the answer.
The first category is the value of Expected Goals and Expected Assists. Translated, this means the value from goals scored and chances created, or final and penultimate passes.
The second category is the value of build-up play and the resulting territorial gain. How many progressive passes and ball carries does the player deliver?
The third category is the player's defensive impact. How much does the opponent's Expected Goals and Expected Assists value decrease when this player plays?
The fourth category is team stability. What is the player's average points per game and what is the goal difference when he is on the field?
Conclusion: There are the so-called killers and game changers, such as Argentina's Lionel Messi, France's Kylian Mbappe, Norway's Erling Haaland, England's Harry Kane, and Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain, who, through their high value in Category 1, stabilize every team in the final steps towards scoring a goal.
But there are very few of them. Most countries have none, and very few have two or more. Specifically, only France, England, and of course Spain. Ousmane Dembele joins Mbappe, Jude Bellingham joins Kane, and none other than Lamine Yamal joins Oyarzabal. Not least for this reason, the four semi-finalists were France, Spain, England, and Argentina.
England's Wall and Argentina's Ugly Face
The big favorite, France, surprisingly failed to bring their offense to bear in the semi-final and bit their teeth against the Spanish defense. Furthermore, the Iberians showed that they were even a notch more secure on the ball than the 'Equipe tricolore' and deservedly reached the final.
In the second semi-final, England tried to hold onto their 1-0 lead against Argentina with a reckless defensive 'parking the bus' tactic. However, in perhaps their best half-hour of the tournament, the Argentinians proved that this wasn't enough against them and thus deservedly reached the final, even though they lost many sympathies, especially at the beginning of the semi-final, with completely excessive harshness.
In the final against Spain, the Gauchos also showed their ugliest face, this time from start to finish. Dirty, sneaky fouls, constant afters, and excessively hard challenges. With appropriately managed referees, it would have been questionable whether Argentina could have finished the game with the minimum number of 7 players. So, the World Champion is quite rightly, and thankfully, Spain.
Not just the most visible players
And there are the 'structure players' or system-bearers, who may have average or below-average values in Category 1 but very good or above-average values in one or more of the other 3 categories, such as Norway's Martin Ødegaard, England's Declan Rice, or, above all, the Spaniards Rodri, who was deservedly voted the best player of the tournament with a pass accuracy of 94% (753 passes out of 803 played reached their target), and Pau Cubarsi, who at 19 years old has stabilized the Spanish defense as the most successful in the world.
The most important players are therefore not only the most visible but those whose absence most significantly changes the team's probability of winning.
Former Killers
However, it becomes almost impossible to win the title when the former killers have long lost their poisonous bite, as was the case for Portugal with Cristiano Ronaldo and Brazil with Neymar Jr., but are unwilling to give up their place.
Quite in contrast to Lionel Messi, who showed the whole world that even at the tender age of 39, he might still be the best player in the world, as he was able to change his game to a world-class level. From the world's best dribbler, he also became the world's best creator. But only when he acts.
In the semi-final against England, 30 outstanding minutes were enough, crowned by the cross for the 2-1 winning goal. Against Spain in the final, however, Messi was absent; in this, perhaps his last game for the Albiceleste, his running performance was more reminiscent of the athletics discipline "5 km race walking."
And if he neither scores nor assists goals, his value to the game is highly questionable, as he hardly participates in defensive play against the ball anyway. In the final, after Fernandez's red card in the 93rd minute, Argentina therefore felt like they were defending with two fewer players.
Outstanding Messi
Nevertheless, Messi played another outstanding World Cup with 8 goals and 4 assists in 8 games. But now Messi must step down as vice-world champion.
Furthermore, he is not granted the pleasure of going on vacation as the eternal World Cup top scorer. Kylian Mbappe snatched this title from him in the friendly match for 3rd place with 2 goals in the 4-6 defeat against England and now has 22 goals, one more than Messi.
But let's return once more to the now more toothless killers.
Ronaldo's Worn Path and Neymar's Arthritis
No one is interested in tarnishing Cristiano Ronaldo's incredible global career, because the magnificent performance he has delivered for more than 20 years at the highest level deserves every respect.
Neymar Jr.'s standing in the Brazilian national team, before Colombian Juan Zuniga shattered his lumbar spine in 2014, is also undisputed. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize whether one is still competitive past the peak of their performance or not.
According to rumors, the greenkeepers are still busy scarifying the worn path that Ronaldo left between the penalty area and the midfield line. But at least he still managed to score 3 goals against overwhelmed Uzbeks and with a penalty against Croatia.
For Neymar Jr., it was even more dramatic. There are unverified accounts that Neymar Jr., in a brief conversation before taking the penalty, supposedly asked the Norwegian goalkeeper Nyland to please consider his progressing arthritis and consequently dive into the other corner.
Nevertheless, he could not prevent Neymar's tears after the final whistle, even though he fulfilled his last wish. For all those wondering how one comes across such information: You don't; it's entirely made up.
Coach Performances and Team Character
There remains the question of coach performances and the closely related character of a team. Especially when there is no high-performing killer on board, a team can only be competitive through a cohesive and intelligent team performance.
The role of the coach gains importance here, but without killers, the chance of winning the title diminishes.
Therefore, it is suspected that football has evolved to a tactical plateau since the Dutch revolution with so-called "Total Football," with which they played their way to the final against Germany in 1974, with AC Milan's zonal marking in the late 80s and early 90s, perfected under Arrigo Sacchi, and with today's tactical flexibility and intensity of these elements.
The Era of the Collective
Even today, Dutch football of that era, with its founder Johan Cruyff, is considered the best of its time. Even today, Arrigo Sacchi's principles of zonal marking apply. In the period before these tactical developments, the killers were usually game-decisive.
In the 90s and 2000s, the era of the collective arrived. Although there were still exceptional individual players, the motto was often "The team is the star." Pioneering coaches in the tactical field, such as Ralf Rangnick, were very successful with average teams in terms of individual players, as shown by his ascents with SSV Ulm or TSG Hoffenheim from the third German league to the first Bundesliga.
Coaches at the highest level, as seen at this World Cup, are now all highly qualified tactically, and therefore, at the plateau of tactical sophistication under existing rules, it is once again the individual players, the killers, who are increasingly the decisive factor.
The coach's performance is therefore primarily to be measured by whether he can shape a team not only tactically but also in character, and whether the team, not least, would go through fire for him.
German Hangover
In Germany, the lament is great, and it's not just the VAR decision on the supposed 2-1 goal in extra time against Paraguay that is being questioned.
Was it good for the team to swap Baumann for Neuer? Was it justifiable to let captain Kimmich play as a right-back just to keep him in the team? Was it performance-based to stoically stick with Leroy Sane? What influence on a team's character does a thin-skinned coach like Julian Nagelsmann have, who seems to react to every reporter's question with annoyance and a certain arrogance?
Jürgen Klopp has proven in his club stints that he can field teams that would go through fire for him. Let's see if he succeeds again if he becomes the German national coach, but for now, every stone will probably be turned in Germany. Especially in the training of young footballers.
And Austria?
What about Austria? Coach Ralf Rangnick probably struggled with the fact that they met a caliber like Spain so early in the knockout phase.
After a surprisingly grueling battle against Algeria, which occurred despite the fact that a draw would have helped both teams achieve their maximum possible goals before the match, Spain was superior in all aspects in the round of sixteen, unfortunately also physically.
Attributing this solely to the draining game against Algeria is certainly not enough.
Rangnick has therefore already announced: "If someone with Austrian ancestors, whom we don't know yet, doesn't emerge somewhere, we will still be playing with the players we have now in two years. I watch many U17, U19, U21 games – I don't see anyone who could follow in their footsteps in the next two years."
Quo Vadis Football?
And with that, we return to the eternally relevant question after a major tournament: Quo vadis football?
Where are the young stars who are not only competitive but can also make a difference at the highest level? Does talent development produce too many "off-the-shelf players"? Streamlined and data-based training in technique, tactics, and athleticism, and shaped by media training.
Do we perhaps improve the overall level in terms of running performance and dutiful task fulfillment in the technical-tactical area, but also prevent the development of more killers, game changers, and special players?
The Magic of the Game
The special players have shaped football for many decades, which is why football is still "the great game" worldwide today. But is football in danger of losing this status? Is the time of football romantics over?
If one looks at the outstanding players of past World Cups, an incredible diversity of player types, personalities, and their stories becomes apparent.
The question about today's Pelés, Maradonas, Cruyffs, Beckenbauers, or Laudrups (note: Michael is being referred to) is not meant nostalgically, but structurally.
Game Changers within the System
Of course, there are outstanding players, such as the current game changers Messi, Mbappe, Haaland, Kane, or Yamal. But the question is whether the system still allows room for true deviation.
Previously, these players emerged by challenging the system. Today, they often emerge within the system.
Academic Conformity
Academies do not produce uniform individuals in a negative sense – but they do produce players whose creativity is always filtered by efficiency. Almost every run, every decision, every action is embedded in a tactical logic.
Providing the platform for players to develop accordingly is the high art of youth coaches.
Whether the current development makes football more attractive in this regard or whether a rethink might be needed will be shown by the future, because one thing must not happen: football must not lose its magic and the potential for the unexpected and special.
And it needs more special, unique players again. More killers.
